Antagoniste


26 novembre 2010

Obama = FDR = Dépression Économie En Vidéos États-Unis Récession

Voyez comment la nouvelle régulation des marchés financiers de Barack Obama forcera Joanne Garneau à congédier ses 250 employés… La compagnie de Joanne Garneau aidaient les gens à payer leur dette, leur évitant ainsi la faillite…

Where are the Jobs? The Parallels between Today and the Great Depression

The Great Recession officially ended way back in June of 2009, so why are so many Americans still out of work?

It’s not because politicians were twiddling their thumbs. Indeed, from from bailouts to « Cash for Clunkers » to the massive stimulus plan, government has busied itself with trying to fix the economy. And, according to President Obama, this « bold, persistent, experimentation » has brought our country back from the brink.

Obama borrows that phrase from President Franklin Rooselvelt, and today’s president has a lot in common with the original bold, persistent, experimenter. Like Obama, FDR was a charismatic Democrat who replaced an unpopular Republican during a time of crisis. And like Obama, FDR championed a slew of policies designed to get America back to work.

Today many Americans credit FDR with rescuing our nation from the Great Depression, but there’s plenty wrong with that view, says Lee Ohanian, a UCLA economics professor who specializes in economic crisis. « What’s wrong with that view is that private-sector job growth did not come back under Roosevelt, » says Ohanian, who notes that Americans often forget how long the Great Depression lasted. Unemployment stood at 17 percent in 1939, a decade after the infamous stock market crash, and, although times were much worse back then, Ohanian sees troubling parallels between the Great Depression and the Great Recession. In both instances our nation emerged from a severe downturn with strong productivity growth and the banking system largely restored. « So the key puzzle for both today and the 1930s is why aren’t private-sector jobs being created at a much more rapid rate? »

Uncertainty may have something to do with it. « Uncertainty is an enemy of job creation, » says Ohanian, « Because in a world with a lot of uncertainty there’s a tendency to ‘wait and see.' » Our nation’s job creators wait and see what Washington’s next experiment will be.

CEO Joanne Garneau has spent a year waiting for the Federal Trade Commission to announce a new regulation that will determine whether her company hires more employees or even stays in business. It’s just one regulation, a tiny one by Washington standards. How will businesses end up being affected by ObamaCare or the 2,300-page financial overhaul? What if taxes go up? Today, like the 1930s, uncertainty reigns.

According to research conducted by Ohanian and fellow UCLA economist Harold L. Cole, FDR’s anti-market policies actually prolonged the Great Depression by seven years. And what about Obama’s policies? When the unemployment rate finally does improve will he receive credit for rescuing America from the Great Recession or blame for prolonging the crisis?


26 novembre 2010

Le party n’est pas fini ! Économie États-Unis Revue de presse

USA Today

Poll: Tea Party support grows
USA Today

Just about as many Americans want Tea Party-backed members of Congress to take the lead in setting policy during the next year as choose President Obama, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds.

In a survey taken Friday through Sunday, 28% say Obama should have the most influence on government policy next year while 27% say the Tea Party standard-bearers should. GOP congressional leaders are chosen by 23%, Democratic congressional leaders by 16%.

The results reflect the strength of the Tea Party movement as the GOP prepares to take control of the House of Representatives in January.

The survey also underscores Obama’s weakened standing. His overall job approval rating, at 42%, is 1 percentage point higher than his historic low in midsummer. His 35% approval rating on the economy is the lowest of his presidency.


24 novembre 2010

Les sacrifiés du carbone Économie Environnement International

Charbon

Bonne nouvelle pour les carbonistes, en 2009 les émissions de CO2 ont diminué de 1,3%. Mauvaise nouvelle pour le reste de la population, cette diminution est imputable à la récession… En 2009, la récession a entraîné la perte d’au moins 20 millions d’emplois.

À ce rythme, pour se conformer aux objectifs de Kyoto (-5,2% du niveau de 1991), il faudrait encore éliminer 458 millions d’emplois ! Que ceux qui sont prêts à se mettre sur le chômage pour sauver la planète lèvent la main…

Avis aux gauchistes qui meurent d’envie de me répondre que l’économie verte peut créer des jobs, les Espagnols ont fait la démonstration que c’était impossible.


24 novembre 2010

Arguing with Idiots: Alec Castonguay Arguing with Idiots Économie En Chiffres Québec

Alec Castonguay, correspondante parlementaire pour la feuille de chou national-socialiste, était en entrevue hier midi sur les ondes du 98,5 avec Benoît Dutrizac.  Pour l’occasion, les 2 comparses se sont foutus de la gueule de Maxime Bernier qui, dans le cadre d’une conférence de l’IEDM, a déclaré que plus l’État réglemente et intervient dans l’économie, plus il y a de corruption.

Malheureusement pour messieurs Castonguay et Dutrizac, Maxime Bernier avait raison.

La Banque Mondiale publie chaque année le classement « Doing Business » qui détermine dans quelle mesure l’intervention de l’État et la réglementation entravent le développement du secteur privé.  En 2006, la Banque Mondiale a montré que plus les gouvernements sont interventionnistes, plus la corruption augmente.  J’ai refait l’exercice pour l’année 2010, voici le résultat (l’indice de corruption provient de Transparency International):

Corruption

On obtient à peu de chose près le même résultat qu’en 2006, confirmant ainsi la relation positive qui existe entre l’étatisme et le niveau de corruption.  Chaque procédure bureaucratique imposée à une entreprise représente une opportunité de pot-de-vin. Moins il y a d’interactions avec les bureaucrates, moins il y aura de possibilités de corruption.

Ce résultat est aussi confirmé par l’indice de liberté économique de l’institut Fraser (l’indice de corruption provient de Transparency International):

Corruption

D’ailleurs, depuis le début de la récession les programmes de relance de l’économie ont entraîné une augmentation du niveau de corruption. Voici l’évolution de l’indice de corruption dans les pays du G8 depuis 2001 (l’indice de corruption provient de Transparency International):

Corruption
Plus l’indice est proche de 0, plus la corruption est importante

Le même exercice, mais avec l’OCDE, une organisation de pays développés possédant un système de gouvernement démocratique et une économie de marché (34 pays membres):

Corruption
Plus l’indice est proche de 0, plus la corruption est importante

De 2001-2007, soit pendant 6 ans, tant chez les pays du G8 que ceux de l’OCDE, la corruption a diminué de manière importante. Mais à partir de 2008, année durant laquelle les plans de relance ont débuté, la tendance s’est inversée, tous les gains ont été effacés et la corruption a augmenté de manière importante.

Dans la littérature spécialisée, on retrouve aussi des études qui démontrent qu’il existe un lien entre la corruption et la taille du gouvernement:

Regarding the primary focus of the paper, our results show that government size, in particular spending by state governments, does indeed have a strong positive influence on corruption. […]

Several other interesting results emerge from our analysis. Given the positive relationship between corruption and the size of state-local governments and a negative relationship between government salaries and corruption, it turns out that policy makers looking to reduce corruption by cutting government spending should be reducing expenditures other than those on employee salaries. Further, it appears from our analysis that corruption increases in periods of economic downturns.

Source: Corruption and government size: A disaggregated analysis (Public Choice Volume 97, Numbers 1-2)

Using a well-known index of corruption, this paper examines the determinants of corruption for a large sample of countries. Specifically, we are interested in determining whether greater economic freedom or greater political freedom contributes more to corruption abatement. The previous literature has studied some related aspects, but the present study is unique in using broad-consistent indices for economic and political freedom. Our results show that greater economic freedom, rather than greater political freedom, seems to be a more effective deterrent to corrupt activities. […]

Our findings can have useful implications for public policy. In the context of internal policy, while both greater economic freedom and greater political freedom contribute to corruption reduction, there are relatively greater benefits in terms of less corruption when economic controls are relaxed.

Source: Economic Freedom Versus Political Freedom: Cross-Country Influences On Corruption (Australian Economic Papers Volume 44, Issue 2)

En bref, Alec Castonguay et Benoît Dutrizac ont raté une belle occasion de se taire.

Sources:
Doing Business
Doing Business Ranking

Fraser Institute
Economic Freedom of the World 2010 Annual Report

Transparency International
Corruption perceptions index


24 novembre 2010

We told you so… Canada Économie Revue de presse

The Globe and Mail

Inflation rate in October outpaces economic forecasts
The Globe and Mail

Canadian inflation rate roared back to life last month, as broad gains in gasoline, electricity and postal services pushed consumer price increases to the fastest clip in two years.

Consumer prices rose 2.4 per cent from a year earlier, Statistics Canada said Tuesday, topping all economists’ forecasts. Less volatile core prices, which the Bank of Canada uses to discern future inflation trends, quickened to 1.8 per cent in October from 1.5 per cent in September.

Some inflationary pressures loom on the horizon. Major supermarkets will feel the heat by next year to pass on wholesale food price increases as companies are squeezed by dramatic jumps in the price of wheat, sugar and other commodities.

Already food suppliers say they will discuss wholesale price increases with retailers. “The price of wheat is going up through the roof, and there will be big additions in terms of price increases over the next 12 months,” W. Galen Weston, chairman of Toronto-based giant George Weston Ltd., said on Tuesday.

By next year “hopefully we will be able – and the market will be able – to pass them on to the consumer,” Mr. La Fleche said.


23 novembre 2010

Réchauffement climatique = arnaque socialiste (fin du débat) Économie En Citations Environnement Gauchistan International

Ottmar Edenhofer

Ottmar Edenhofer, un des principaux contributeurs au GIEC, avoue candidement que l’objectif l’ONU n’est pas d’ordre écologique, mais économique i.e. la redistribution planétaire de la richesse:

« The climate summit in Cancun at the end of the month is not a climate conference, but one of the largest economic conferences since the Second World War. […]

But one must say clearly that we redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy. Obviously, the owners of coal and oil will not be enthusiastic about this. One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. This has almost nothing to do with environmental policy anymore. »


23 novembre 2010

Relique syndicale Économie États-Unis Récession

Jurassic Park

Aux États-Unis, dans 22 des 50 États, la formule Rand a été abolie (ce que les Américains appellent des Right-to-Work States).

Dans ces États, en 2009, année où la récession a frappé de plein fouet, la croissance économique a été de -1,66%. Dans les États où l’adhésion au syndicat est obligatoire (maintien de la formule Rand), la croissance économique a été de -2,42%. C’est une différence non négligeable de 46% entre les 2 systèmes.

Somme toute, même en période de récession, on peut se passer des reliques syndicales.


23 novembre 2010

Top5 Qc/Ca Canada Québec Top Actualité

Le Top 5 de l’actualité québécoise et canadienne (16–22 novembre) selon Influence Communication:

Actualité Québec

Actualité Canada

Top 5 Twitter au Canada  – Semaine du 9 au 15 novembre 2010

Top 5 hebdomadaire des mots clés québécois les plus traités sur Twitter au Canada:

  1. Pat Burns: 4,29% (2e)
  2. Vaillancourt: 0,63% (44e)
  3. #charest: 0,46% (46e)
  4. Auclair: 0,10% (124e)
  5. Duchesneau: 0,02% (171e)

Top 5 hebdomadaire des mots clés les plus traités sur Twitter au Canada

  1. #slapyourself: 7,48%
  2. Pat Burns: 4,29%
  3. #haveuever: 4,24%
  4. #thingsgirlswantboystodo: 3,96%
  5. Ryan Reynolds: 3,72%

Source:
Influence Communication


23 novembre 2010

L’Irlande, l’Espagne, les États-Unis & les libertariens Économie Europe Récession Revue de presse

The Economist

Taking von Mises to pieces
The Economist

A one-paragraph explanation of the Austrian theory of business cycles would run as follows. Interest rates are held at too low a level, creating a credit boom. Low financing costs persuade entrepreneurs to fund too many projects. Capital is misallocated into wasteful areas. When the bust comes the economy is stuck with the burden of excess capacity, which then takes years to clear up.

Take that analysis piece by piece. Were interest rates held too low? The case seems self-evident for Ireland and Spain, where the European Central Bank was setting a one-size-fits-all monetary policy. Many people would also argue that the Federal Reserve kept rates too low. Some lay the housing boom of 2003-06 at the Fed’s door, others criticise the central bank’s tendency to slash rates whenever the financial markets wobbled.

Was capital misallocated? Again most people would accept that too many houses and apartments were built in Ireland and Spain, as well as individual American states like Florida and Nevada. In some places these dwellings may sit idle for a while, keeping downward pressure on property prices.