Energy Policy


Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the literature: A re-analysis
Energy Policy

A claim has been that 97% of the scientific literature endorses anthropogenic climate change (Cook et al., 2013. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 024024). This claim, frequently repeated in debates about climate policy, does not stand. A trend in composition is mistaken for a trend in endorsement. Reported results are inconsistent and biased. The sample is not representative and contains many irrelevant papers. Overall, data quality is low. Cook?s validation test shows that the data are invalid. Data disclosure is incomplete so that key results cannot be reproduced or tested.

I argue that the paper by Cook et al. may strengthen the belief that all is not well in climate research. Data are hidden, the conducted survey did not follow best practice, there are signs of bias in the data, there is no trend in endorsement, and the sample is not representative.

Vous savez l’étude qui a été abondamment médiatisée au printemps 2013 qui affirmait que 97% des scientifiques croyaient au réchauffement climatique… Un an plus tard, on apprend que cette étude ne valait strictement rien…

Par contre, bien peu de médias ont parlé de cette nouvelle erreur des réchauffiste… Qu’importe, quand une personne vous parlera du fameux/fumeux 97%, vous saurez quoi lui répondre.