A newly published paper says climate change caused by humans could be responsible for as little as half the wholesale melting of sea ice in the Canadian Arctic and Greenland that has amazed and alarmed scientists.
The finding, published in Nature magazine, should caution those attempting to turn global theories into regional predictions, said co-author Mike Wallace of the University of Washington. « Whenever you start to look at local climate trends, you have to look at the internal variability as well as the human-induced variability, » said Wallace. « The natural variability is huge. »
The area of north Greenland and the Canadian archipelago, with temperature increases nearly twice as large as the Arctic average, has been warming particularly quickly.
Wallace says up to half of that increase is more likely to be due to complex atmospheric links that originate with rain and wind patterns in the South Pacific — not warming from greenhouse gases. Unusually heavy rain in a region of the South Pacific sets up turbulence in the atmosphere that affects the whole globe, he said. Wallace said climate models have only been able to explain about half the warming that has been seen in the region. The energy created by atmospheric waves originating in the South Pacific nicely accounts for the rest.
Pourtant en 2007 les réchauffistes nous ont dit que c’était uniquement le réchauffement climatique qui faisait fondre le Nord canadien. Leur conclusion était définitive et on avait prédit que l’Arctique serait libre de glaces quelque part entre 2010 et 2015…
Aujourd’hui, on apprend que dans le pire des cas, le réchauffement climatique est responsable à 50%…