Scottish independence: Currency union ‘unlikely’
Concerns over the future of an independent Scotland’s fiscal position, the size of its banking sector and its monetary regime have been highlighted in a report by a global banking group. The publication from Citi also looks at the possible currency and debt arrangements in the event of a yes vote, and considers the strength of Scotland’s credit rating.
It found that an independent Scotland’s fiscal position would be “relatively weak and risky” while a monetary union between Scotland and the rest of the UK is “unlikely”. The report has been compiled jointly by Citi’s economics, rate strategy and political analysis teams ahead of the September referendum.
Citi’s report says: “We regard a sterling monetary union as unlikely but we are genuinely unsure what currency and monetary policy would be adopted by an independent Scotland.“In our view, it is astonishing that the Scottish Government, in seeking independence, has reached this stage: seeking a currency union without agreement with the rest of the UK and without a clear alternative plan.”
It continued: “Overall, we believe an independent Scotland would have a relatively weak and risky fiscal position. This might well produce a sizeable borrowing premium.
Un référendum sur la souveraineté de l’Écosse doit se tenir en septembre… Un exercice qui devrait être pédagogique pour les Québécois…