Geophysical Research Letters

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Plausible reasons for the inconsistencies between the modelled and observed temperatures in the tropical troposphere
Geophysical Research Letters

We herewith attempt to detect plausible reasons for the discrepancies between the measured and modeled tropospheric temperature anomalies in the tropics. For this purpose, we calculate the trends of the upper-minus-lower tropospheric temperature anomaly differences (TAD) for both the measured and modeled time series during 1979-2010. The modeled TAD trend is significantly higher than that of the measured ones, confirming that the vertical amplification of warming is exaggerated in models. To investigate the cause of this exaggeration, we compare the intrinsic properties of the measured and modelled TAD by employing detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The DFA-exponent obtained for the measured values reveals white noise behaviour, while the exponent for the modelled ones shows that they exhibit long-range power law correlations. We suggest that the vertical amplification of warming derived from modelled simulations is weighted with a persistent signal, which should be removed in order to achieve better agreement with observations.

Pour ceux qui se sont perdus dans le jargon scientifique, cette étude montre que les modèles utilisés par les climatologues ne sont pas bons i.e. si l’on compare les températures réelles mesurées entre 1979 et 2010 avec les températures que prédisent les modèles, les prédictions des modèles sont toujours plus élevées que les valeurs mesurées dans la réalité.

Cette étude a été publié la semaine dernière, mais pourtant personne n’a jugé bon en parlé dans les médias…