Geophysical Research Letters

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Decreasing trend of tropical cyclone frequency in 228-year high-resolution AGCM simulations
Geophysical Research Letters

We conducted 228-year long, three-member ensemble simulations using a high resolution (60 km grid size) global atmosphere model, MRI-AGCM3.2, with prescribed sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases and aerosols from 1872 to 2099. We found a clear decreasing trend of global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency throughout the 228 years of the simulation. We also found a significant multidecadal variation (MDV) in the long term variation of Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere TC count in addition to the decreasing trend. The decreasing trend and MDV in the long term variation of TC count correspond well to a similar decreasing trend and MDV of upward mass flux averaged over the TC genesis region and active TC season. It has been shown that the upward mass flux decreases primarily because the rate of increase of dry static stability, which is close to that of surface specific humidity, is much larger than the rate of increase of precipitation, which is nearly the same as that of atmospheric radiative cooling. Thus, it is suggested that the decreasing trend of TC count is mainly caused by the decreasing trend of upward mass flux associated with the increasing dry static stability.

Pour ceux qui se sont perdus dans le jargon scientifique, cette étude montre que depuis 228 ans, la fréquence des ouragans est en baisse.

Il va de soi que cet article, publié dans un journal scientifique renommé, sera ignoré par nos médias. Parler de cet article équivaudrait à dire qu’il n’existe pas de consensus scientifique sur le réchauffement climatique…