Earth System Dynamics

Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming
Earth System Dynamics

We use statistical methods for nonstationary time series to test the anthropogenic interpretation of global warming (AGW), according to which an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations raised global temperature in the 20th century. Specifically, the methodology of polynomial cointegration is used to test AGW since during the observation period (1880–2007) global temperature and solar irradiance are stationary in 1st differences whereas greenhouse gases and aerosol forcings are stationary in 2nd differences. We show that although these anthropogenic forcings share a common stochastic trend, this trend is empirically independent of the stochastic trend in temperature and solar irradiance. Therefore, greenhouse gas forcing, aerosols, solar irradiance and global temperature are not polynomially cointegrated. This implies that recent global warming is not statistically significantly related to anthropogenic forcing. On the other hand, we find that greenhouse gas forcing might have had a temporary effect on global temperature.

Pour ceux qui se sont perdus dans le jargon scientifique, cette étude montre qu’il n’existe aucune relation entre le réchauffement climatique et l’émission de gaz à effet de serre.

Il va de soi que cet article, publié dans un journal scientifique renommé, sera ignoré par nos médias. Parler de cet article équivaudrait à dire qu’il n’existe pas de consensus scientifique sur le réchauffement climatique…