Geophysical Research Letters

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Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity
Geophysical Research Letters

Tropical cyclone accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has exhibited strikingly large global interannual variability during the past 40-years. In the pentad since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and global tropical cyclone ACE has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Additionally, the global frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low. Here evidence is presented demonstrating that considerable variability in tropical cyclone ACE is associated with the evolution of the character of observed large-scale climate mechanisms including the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. […]

The most prolific calendar year totals of global ACE occurred during the 1990s peaking with the exceptional 1997–98 El Niño event, and again during 2002–2005. The recent four years of global ACE have remained near or below 600 units and are closer to values observed in 1981, 1988, and 1999–2001. From the end of the most recent peak in 2005–06, global ACE has decreased by almost half and is currently at a three decades’ low. This decrease resulted from four consecutive years of below average NH ACE from 2007 to 2010 combined with average to below average SH ACE during the same period including the most recent season ending May 2011. […] A total of 69 TCs were counted during calendar year 2010, the fewest observed in the past 40 years with reliable frequency data.

Pour les cocos du Hétustitan qui n’ont pas encore compris, cette étude montre qu’il n’y a pas d’augmentation dans le nombre et la force des ouragans, simplement des oscillations cycliques, attribuables, par exemple, à El Niño.

Voici une image tirée de cet article qui est très révélatrice, on y montre l’énergie accumulée par les ouragans depuis 1970:

Ouragan Réchauffement Climatique

Depuis quelques jours, on a aussi pu entendre des membres de la grande église réchauffiste (de confession carbonniste) dire que jamais New York n’avait été frappé par un tel ouragan.

Vraiment ?

Voici la liste des ouragans qui ont touché terre dans l’État de New York:

Ouragan Réchauffement Climatique
Dommage: valeur actualisée en dollars de 2012

Sandy était un ouragan de catégorie 1 et on estime ses dommages entre 10 et 20 milliards.

Comment les réchauffistes expliquent-ils les nombreux ouragans violents dans les années 50-60 et 70 et le calme plat depuis 1985 ?