Toronto Star

Referendum talk could hurt Quebec’s economic prospects, U.S. analyst warns
Toronto Star

Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), an international investment management firm, has published a report warning Quebec politicians — without naming any names — about the potentially negative impact any talk of severing ties with Canada could have on the costs of borrowing in the province.

The report argues that despite a relatively high debt load and potential for slower economic growth on the horizon, international investors are wiling to give Quebec a chance because Canada is there to help it out.

“If Quebec politicians are not careful in this upcoming election, they could call into question the fiscal union that underlies the market’s expectation of potential federal support,” Ed Devlin, the executive vice-president for the Canadian portfolio of PIMCO, wrote in the report.

The report compares Quebec, which is in both a monetary and fiscal union with Canada, to Italy, which shares a currency with the European Union but not a fiscal policy.

“The recent Italian experience should be a warning to Quebec politicians: Policies and rhetoric that undermine international investors’ confidence can quickly lead to higher bond yields, starting the vicious cycle of austerity and lower growth that could lead to fundamental questions of solvency,” Devlin wrote.

On imagine facilement les candidats vedettes de la CAQ dans des ministères importants comme les finances (Christian Dubé), la sécurité publique (Jacques Duchesneau), les transports (Maud Cohen), la santé (Gaétan Barrette), l’éducation (Chantal Longpré) ou les affaires municipales (Hélène Daneault)…

On imagine mal les candidats vedettes du PQ avec un autre portefeuille que celui du « ministère de la souveraineté »…