The Globe And Mail

If robo-calls were meant to keep voters away, they failed miserably
The Globe And Mail

Tales of voter suppression in the last federal election have emerged across the country. But while ridings alleged to have been targeted by these tactics were won by smaller margins than those not implicated, an analysis of these ridings indicates voter turnout was higher, not lower, than elsewhere in Canada.

An analysis of these ridings shows turnout averaged 61.6 per cent, slightly higher than the 60.9 per cent average turnout in ridings where no allegations of impropriety have been reported. If we only focus on the ridings in which allegations of misleading robo-calls have been made, the turnout averaged 62 per cent.

Compared to 2008, turnout increased by 4.7 per cent in these ridings. It increased by only 3.9 per cent in ridings that have not been implicated in the scandal. Turnout in neighbouring untainted ridings does not seem to have been significantly different. If these allegations of voter suppression tactics are indeed true, they do not appear to have been very successful.

The average margin of victory in 2008 in ridings where no allegations have been made was 10,927 votes and 25 percentage points. In ridings where allegations of misleading calls have been made, that margin was only 6,191 votes and 14.2 percentage points, not dissimilar from the 2011 results.

Pourquoi ce genre d’analyse est absente dans les médias du Québec ? Poser la question c’est y répondre…