26 septembre 2010

Owned ! Coup de gueule En Images Québec

Pierre Curzi, l’idole de Jean-François Lisée, nous démontre tout l’étendu de son extraordinaire talent de politicien:

Comme on dit par chez-nous: epic fail !!!

H/T: Les Analystes

26 septembre 2010

Le cirque débarque à Washington États-Unis Gauchistan Revue de presse

Boston Herald

Stephen Colbert’s Congress visit called ‘sad commentary’
Boston Herald

Goofball TV comic Stephen Colbert took his off-the-wall Comedy Central shtick to Congress yesterday – making a mockery of a House hearing while “testifying” before lawmakers on immigration reform. Colbert, who addressed the immigration subcommittee in his satirical news character, said he spent a day picking beans and packing corn in the “unforgiving sun” with illegal immigrants.

Boston University professor Tobe Berkovitz said it’s a “sad commentary on our political system when the Congress feels compelled to stoop to the lowest common denominator on important public issues.”

“That the Congress feels that having an entertainer come in as an expert witness on a serious policy issue shows just how dramatically out of touch the Congress is with any sense of propriety,” Berkovitz said.

At the start, House Judiciary Chairman John Conyers praised Colbert for drawing a crowd then asked him to depart and leave the job of testifying to expert witnesses. “You run your show, we run the committee,” Conyers said.

25 septembre 2010

Consensus scientifique: Keynes était un imbécile Économie International Récession

« A review of over 200 fiscal adjustments in 21 countries shows that spending discipline and tax cuts are the best ways to spur economic growth. »

Wall Street Journal
Tax Cuts vs. ‘Stimulus’: The Evidence Is In

Libertarien Politicians argue for increased stimulus spending, as opposed to spending cuts, on the grounds that it would speed up economic recovery. This argument might have it exactly backward. Indeed, history shows that cutting spending in order to reduce deficits may be the key to promoting economic recovery.

In Europe today, the risk of a renewed recession comes not from the spending cuts that some governments have enacted, but from a sovereign debt overhang and multiple bank failures. July’s stress tests were not reassuring because they didn’t test the exposure of European banks to sovereign debt; had they done so, many banks would have failed. Those banks remain a threat to the European economy.

In the U.S., meanwhile, recent stimulus packages have proven that the « multiplier »—the effect on GDP per one dollar of increased government spending—is small. Stimulus spending also means that tax increases are coming in the future; such increases will further threaten economic growth.

Economic history shows that even large adjustments in fiscal policy, if based on well-targeted spending cuts, have often led to expansions, not recessions. Fiscal adjustments based on higher taxes, on the other hand, have generally been recessionary.

My colleague Silvia Ardagna and I recently co-authored a paper examining this pattern, as have many studies over the past 20 years. Our paper looks at the 107 large fiscal adjustments—defined as a cyclically adjusted deficit reduction of at least 1.5% in one year—that took place in 21 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries between 1970 and 2007.

According to our model, a country experienced an expansionary fiscal adjustment when its rate of GDP growth in the year of the adjustment and the next year was in the top 25% of the OECD. A recessionary period, then, was when a country’s growth rate was in the bottom 75% of the OECD.

Our results were striking: Over nearly 40 years, expansionary adjustments were based mostly on spending cuts, while recessionary adjustments were based mostly on tax increases. And these results would have been even stronger had our definition of an expansionary period been more lenient (extending, for example, to the top 50% of the OECD). In addition, adjustments based on spending cuts were accompanied by longer-lasting reductions in ratios of debt to GDP.

In the same paper we also examined years of large fiscal expansions, defined as increases in the cyclically adjusted deficit by at least 1.5% of GDP. Over 91 such cases, we found that tax cuts were much more expansionary than spending increases.

How can spending cuts be expansionary? First, they signal that tax increases will not occur in the future, or that if they do they will be smaller. A credible plan to reduce government outlays significantly changes expectations of future tax liabilities. This, in turn, shifts people’s behavior. Consumers and especially investors are more willing to spend if they expect that spending and taxes will remain limited over a sustained period of time.

On the other hand, fiscal adjustments based on tax increases reduce consumers’ disposable income and reduce incentives for productivity.

American firms today are profitable and have large unspent resources. But their uncertainty over regulation and taxes discourages them from risk-taking, investment and consumption. In Europe, governments would strengthen the banking sector if they cut spending and reduced their default risk. This, in turn, would ease the flow of credit into the private sector.

The composition of fiscal adjustments is therefore critical. Based on what we know, the U.S. and Europe are currently at greater risk from increased stimulus spending than from gradual but credible spending cuts.

Europe seems to have learned the lessons of the past decades: In fact, all the countries currently adjusting their fiscal policy are focusing on spending cuts, not tax hikes. Yet fiscal policy in the U.S. will sooner or later imply higher taxes if spending is not soon reduced.

The evidence from the last 40 years suggests that spending increases meant to stimulate the economy and tax increases meant to reduce deficits are unlikely to achieve their goals. The opposite combination might.

Mr. Alesina is a professor of political economy at Harvard.

24 septembre 2010

Vive l’exploitation ! Économie En Vidéos International Mondialisation

June Arrunga & Johann Norberg à propos de la mondialisation:

« If trade is exploitation, then the problem in the world is that most of the people aren’t sufficiently exploited. »

Je vous invites à regarder quelques extraits du documentaire « Globalisation is good », de Johann Norberg, que j’ai publié en 2007:

24 septembre 2010

La résurrection Économie En Chiffres États-Unis Récession

Il y a deux ans, on avait annoncé la mort du parti républicain.   Selon les observateurs de la scène politique américaine, le GOP était condamné à ne survivre que sur une base régionale dans le sud des États-Unis.  Deux ans plus tard, il semble que les nouvelles de la mort du parti républicain aient été grandement exagérées…

Grand Old Party

Grand Old Party

La dernière fois qu’on a pu voir des chiffres semblables, c’était en 1994, l’année du tsunami républicain…

Gallop Poll
On the Role of Government, Parties’ Ratings Look Like 1994: Americans more likely to see Republicans than Democrats representing their views and values

24 septembre 2010

Les indépendantistes américains Économie États-Unis Récession


Pew: Independents now for GOP

In an ominous sign for President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats, independent voters now favor Republicans by nearly the same margins that they went for Obama in 2008 and for his party in the 2006 midterms, according to a survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press released Wednesday.

Unlike the most recent election cycles, when independents complained about the lack of progress in Washington on major issues facing the country, these critical swing voters now are expressing high anxiety with what Congress and the White House have already done.

“Trust in government is at one of the lowest points in 60 years of polling,” Kohut [president of the Pew Research Center] said. “It’s a backlash against what is seen as government policies and programs that are too liberal or too much in the vein of government expansion.”

Among them, 49 percent said they will support a GOP candidate, compared with 36 percent who are likely to vote Democratic — and that “is a pivotal factor behind the Republican Party’s overall 7-point lead among all likely voters at this point in the campaign,” the Pew report notes.

22 septembre 2010

Obamanomics Chine Économie En Chiffres États-Unis Hétu Watch

Non seulement Barack Obama est fier de son bilan économique, mais il a eu l’arrogance/ la stupidité de demander aux Tea Party d’identifier les solutions aux problèmes qu’ils dénoncent.

Mes solutions pour le président Obama ?  Et si le président prenait les mesures pour s’assurer que son pays soit moins communiste que la Chine…  Voici comment le Forum Économique Mondial classe les États-Unis par rapport à la Chine (rang occupé sur 139 pays):


Voici comment se compare la dernière année de Bush à la présente année d’Obama:


Obama fait pire que Bush, même si ce dernier a toujours eu tendance à pencher à gauche sur les questions économiques !

P.-S. Un sondage Rasmussen publié mardi montre que 52% de l’électorat américain estiment que leurs idées sont plus proches de celles de Sarah Palin que de celles de Barack Obama.  Seulement 40% des Américains considèrent que leurs idées sont plus proches que celles du président que de celles de l’ancienne colistière de John McCain.

Forum Économique Mondial
Centre for Global Competitiveness and Performance

22 septembre 2010

L’inutile registre Canada Économie

GaspillageDans un monde où les politiciens seraient des gens rationnels, le registre des armes d’épaule serait aboli aujourd’hui. Mais le concept de « politiciens rationnels » est un oxymoron…

Premièrement, les coûts de fonctionnement du registre sont tout simplement astronomiques.  Selon la GRC il en coûte 86,5 millions de dollars par année, la Canadian Taxpayers Federation estime de son côté que les dépenses sont de l’ordre de 106 millions de dollars.  Et qu’obtient-on en retour ?  Pas grand chose.

La GRC défend le registre en disant qu’on a pu réduire le nombre d’homicides avec des armes d’épaule.  C’est juste, en 1995, avant l’arrivée du registre, il y a eu 64 meurtres commis avec une arme d’épaule, en 2008 ce nombre est passé à 34.  Par contre de 1995 à 2008, le nombre d’homicides commis avec une arme à feu a légèrement augmenté, il est passé de 176 à 200.  Comment peut-on expliquer cette situation ?  Assez simplement… En 1995, 54% des homicides par arme à feu ont été commis avec une arme de poing contre 37% pour les armes d’épaule.  En 2008, la proportion était de 61% pour les armes de poing et de 17% pour les armes d’épaule.  En bref, le registre n’a pas réduit le nombre de meurtres, il a tout simplement fait en sorte que les criminels utilisent dorénavant les armes de poing, provenant du marché noir, en plus grand nombre.

La GRC défend aussi le registre en disant qu’il a réduit le nombre de suicides par arme à feu.  Mais comme dans le cas des homicides, cet argument ne tient pas la route.  Même si le nombre de suicides commis avec des armes à feu a diminué depuis l’adoption du registre, le taux de suicide est resté le même.  Somme toute, comme pour les homicides, le registre a tout simplement fait en sorte que les gens ont utilisé une méthode différente pour parvenir à leur fin.

Le registre n’a pas eu d’impact sur les homicides ni sur les suicides.  Alors, pourquoi continuer à engloutir des millions de dollars dans cette structure inutile qui ne fait que criminaliser d’honnêtes citoyens ?

Statistique Canada
Tableaux 253-0005, 253-0001 & 102-0551

22 septembre 2010

La bonne nouvelle du jour Environnement International Revue de presse

The Guardian

Climate change enlightenment was fun while it lasted. But now it’s dead
The Guardian

The closer it comes, the worse it looks. The best outcome anyone now expects from December’s climate summit in Mexico is that some delegates might stay awake during the meetings. When talks fail once, as they did in Copenhagen, governments lose interest. They don’t want to be associated with failure, they don’t want to pour time and energy into a broken process. Nine years after the world trade negotiations moved to Mexico after failing in Qatar, they remain in diplomatic limbo. Nothing in the preparations for the climate talks suggests any other outcome.

A meeting in China at the beginning of October is supposed to clear the way for Cancún. The hosts have already made it clear that it’s going nowhere: there are, a top Chinese climate change official explains, still « huge differences between developed and developing countries ». Everyone blames everyone else for the failure at Copenhagen. Everyone insists that everyone else should move.

But nobody cares enough to make a fight of it. The disagreements are simultaneously entrenched and muted. The doctor’s certificate has not been issued; perhaps, to save face, it never will be. But the harsh reality we have to grasp is that the process is dead.