John Stossel sur la légalisation des stéroïdes:
Un crime sans victime.
- Résolution:
1024 par 768 (et +)
L’astrologie 
Au début du mois de janvier 2009, l'Administration Obama a publié un document signé par son intelligentsia économique pour nous convaincre de l'absolue nécessité d'adopter un plan de relance de 787 milliards de dollars.
Voici un graphique qu'on peut retrouver dans ce document, il donne les prévisions du taux de chômage avec et sans l'adoption de mesures keynésiennes:
Selon la prévision, pour le mois d'avril 2009, le plan de relance aurait dû produire un taux de chômage de 7,8%. Sans l'adoption du plan de relance, on prévoyait un taux de chômage de 8,3%.
Les statistiques sur le chômage aux États-Unis ont été publiées la semaine dernière, ce dernier s'élève à… 8,9% ! Vous avez bien lu: le taux de chômage surpasse la prévision établie advenant l'absence d'un plan de relance !
Bref, on pourrait remplacer les économétristes par des astrologues et l'on aurait probablement des prévisions tout aussi fiables.
Et dire que si nos gouvernements pensent être capables de relancer l'économie en faisant des déficits monstres, c'est parce qu'ils font confiance aux gens faisant ce genre de prédiction… On a envoyé Bernard Madoff en prison pour moins que ça.
Creuser sa tombe 
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Chávez seizures fuel Venezuela oil fears A fresh round of expropriations in Venezuela has raised fears that the Opec producer’s already declining oil output could sink to its lowest level in the past 20 years. Troops were mobilised over the weekend to assist Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA, in seizing the assets of some 60 oil service companies, after a law was approved last week that paves the way for the state to take increasing control over its all-important oil industry. “To God what is God’s, and to Caesar what is Caesar’s,” said Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez, as he presided over the expropriation of more than 30 oil terminals and some 300 boats. This move forms part of a broader assault against the private sector, which Mr Chávez has increasingly blamed as Venezuela slides into recession. Simultaneously he is engaging in what opposition leaders say is a campaign of persecution of his political foes. Manuel Rosales, a former presidential candidate, has been granted asylum in Peru to escape arrest over corruption charges, while congress has removed almost all the spending powers of Antonio Ledezma, the anti-Chávez mayor of Caracas. Other opponents have been jailed or gone into hiding. |
Abuseur public 
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Il y a quelques semaines, sur le plateau de Tout le Monde en Parle, l'exécrable Micheline Lanctôt s'est livrée à une attaque en règle contre les fondations créées par les riches pour aider les pauvres. "Ce sont des taxes qui ne vont pas au gouvernement !" s'est-elle exclamée. C'est vrai. On sait tous que l'argent perçu par le gouvernement sert exclusivement à aider les pauvres. Jamais l'argent de nos taxes ne servirait à donner une augmentation de salaire de 11,25% sur 3 ans à un monopole syndical. Les fondations sont des organismes de proximité qui sont mus par une volonté sincère d'aider les gens. Les gouvernements sont des entités distantes qui sont mues par une volonté sincère de conserver ses privilèges et ses pouvoirs. |
Top 5 Qc 
Le Top 5 de l'actualité québécoise (5-11 mai) selon Influence Communication:
Le pouvoir médiatique de la grippe s’effrite
Avec une chute de 67 % de son volume de couverture, la grippe H1N1 a cédé l’avant-scène de l’actualité avec un poids médias de 2,42 %. C’est un dossier comparable à celui des médias du Canada anglais qui ont accordé 2,69 % de leur contenu à la nouvelle. Elle a ainsi perdu 46 % de sa vélocité dans l’ensemble du pays.
C’est la crise financière qui a repris la tête avec 4,03 %.
Si les médias montréalais démontrent habituellement peu d’intérêt pour les affaires municipales, la dernière semaine a fait mentir les analystes. Les nombreuses spéculations autour de Frank Zampino et ses liens avec Dessau, Tony Accurso et le dossier des compteurs d’eau ont occupé 0,91 % des nouvelles.
Les médias ne lâchent pas la Caisse de dépôt qui a encore été au centre des préoccupations avec 0,90 %.
Finalement, le maire Gérald Tremblay dépassera bientôt Vincent Lecavalier à titre de 9e personne la plus médiatisée au Québec en 2009. La question de son leadership a obtenu 0,79 % depuis une semaine.
Top 5 de l'actualité canadienne :
- Crise financière: 3,10 %
- Grippe A H1N1: 2,69 %
- Séries éliminatoires de la LNH: 1,42 %
- Élections en Colombie-Britannique: 1,19 %
- Jeux olympiques de Vancouver – 2010: 0,90 %
Source:
Influence Communication
Paranoïa 
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Fearing swine flu, Haiti rejects Mexican aid ship Haitian officials rejected a Mexican aid ship carrying 77 tons of much-needed food aid because of « unfounded » swine flu fears, Mexico’s ambassador said Wednesday. The Mexican navy ship El Huasteco was to arrive May 2 in Port-au-Prince carrying rice, fertilizer and emergency food kits to help the impoverished country respond to chronic hunger and devastating tropical storms. But Mexican Ambassador Zadalinda Gonzalez y Reynero said Haitian officials told her April 29 they would not accept the ship, which was still in Mexican waters near the Yucatan peninsula at the time. « The crew was in perfect health and there was no risk at all, » Gonzalez y Reynero told The Associated Press, adding that the cargo and 64 sailors aboard the ship had all been screened in Mexico. « We did not want to turn back the ship, but we also did not want our crew to be mistreated. » The executive director of Haiti’s Health Ministry, Dr. Gabriel Thimothee, said no ships from Mexico are being allowed in Haitian ports. He said he could not say when that policy began. |
Moraliser le capitalisme
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Depuis le début de la récession, l'indice Dow Jones (DJI) a perdu 34,2% de sa valeur. Durant la même période de temps, le Vice Fund1 (VICEX) a perdu 45,5% de sa valeur. De son côté, le Ave Maria Growth Fund2 (AVEGX) a perdu 28,7% de sa valeur. 1Fonds d'investissement américain qui intervient sur les sociétés dont l'activité est concentrée dans des domaines tels que le tabac, les jeux, l'alcool, les armes, la défense. 2Fonds d'investissement américain qui intervient sur les sociétés dont l'activité ne violent pas les principes religieux de l'Église catholique romaine. |
Marchands d’armes (III) 
Où se ramassent les armes vendues de par le monde ?
- 73% des armes exportées par la Russie (le plus gros exportateur) sont vendues à des pays non-libres ou partiellement libres. Seulement 27% de leurs exportation se font vers des pays libres.
- 26% des armes exportées par les États-Unis (le 2e plus gros exportateur) sont vendues à des pays non-libres ou partiellement libres. 74% de leurs exportations se font vers des pays libres.
MISE-À-JOUR
- 97% des armes exportées par la France (le 4e plus gros exportateur) sont vendues à des pays non-libres ou partiellement libres. Seulement 3% de leurs exportations se font vers des pays libres.
Sources:
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Importer/Exporter TIV Tables / Combined Average Ratings: Independent Countries, 2008
Aucun changement
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Yanks in Crisis We’re in the middle of the biggest crisis of capitalism in 70 years. We’ve got a new administration in Washington active on every front. So whom do Americans turn to in times like these? Themselves. Americans have always felt that they are masters of their own fate. Decade after decade, Americans stand out from others in their belief that their own individual actions determine how they fare. That conviction has been utterly unshaken by the global crisis. The crisis has not sent Americans running to government for relief. Nor has it led to a populist surge in anti-business sentiment. In a recent Gallup poll, 55 percent of Americans said that big government is the biggest threat to the country. Only 32 percent said big business. Americans have always been skeptical of activist government, and that skepticism remains. When Gallup asked specifically about the current crisis, 44 percent of Americans said they disapprove of an expanded role for government during the crisis; 39 percent said they approve of an expanded role but want it reduced when the crisis is over; and only 13 percent want to see a permanently expanded role for government. When asked what could best enhance income security, half of all Americans said it was a matter of individual responsibility, 19 percent said government regulations like increasing the minimum wage were most effective and 15 percent said government programs. The Great Depression altered the national consciousness. So far, the Great Recession has not. |
Made in the USA 
Pour certains, la mondialisation implique une délocalisation de l'industrie manufacturière des pays riches vers les pays en voie de développement en raison des coûts plus faibles de la main-d'oeuvre. Beaucoup de gens s'imaginent que ce phénomène est sur le point de faire de la Chine un géant économique.
Sachez que pour chaque 1$ produit par l'industrie manufacturière chinoise, l'industrie manufacturière américaine produit 2,5$.
Depuis 1990, le nombre de travailleurs dans le secteur manufacturier américain a diminué de 23,5%. Par contre, la production de cette industrie a augmenté de 40%. Produire plus avec moins, c'est un gain de productivité rendu possible par la compétition des pays en voie de développement.
Tout comme Bush 
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Obama team retains Bush polar bear policy The Obama administration has decided to keep a Bush-era policy on polar bears – declining to crack down on greenhouse-gas polluters on the grounds that their emissions are helping shrink the bears’ habitat on Arctic sea ice, officials announced Friday. The problem of climate change is so big, and so complicated, that it would essentially overwhelm the bureaucracy created to protect threatened and endangered species, officials said. Friday’s decision was criticized by environmental groups: John Kostyack, of Defenders of Wildlife, conceded that it would have been difficult to tackle a massive problem like greenhouse gases through the endangered species bureaucracy. But he said that should not be a reason formally to let polluters off the hook. Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin hailed the decision as a « clear victory for Alaska » because it removes the link between bear protection and climate change and should help North Slope oil and gas development. Both of Alaska’s senators and its only House member also praised the decision and rejected claims that the bear won’t be protected. |
Les nouveaux astrologues
"The mathematical method must be rejected not only on account of its barrenness. It is an entirely vicious method, starting from false assumptions and leading to fallacious inferences. …There is no such thing as quantitative economics."
Whatever The Reason, It's Not For Their Abilities As Economic Forecasters
Few things have less shelf life than a daily newspaper. Within less than 24 hours, the news is like day-old champagne: The fizz is gone. Nothing wrong with that, since newspapers never claim to be more than a snapshot of things as they seem to journalists at a point in time. Economists are another matter. Economists claim to produce stuff that has greater value over a longer term, especially the forecasters. But as we've all come to learn from the global economic crisis, the longevity of the vast majority of work produced by economists isn't much better than your average newspaper. They didn't see the credit and economic meltdown coming, they don't know when it will bottom out, and they don't really know when growth will return and at what rate.
When Gordon Campbell, premier of British Columbia, visited the National Post editorial board a few months ago to discuss the deteriorating state of the B. C. economy, he expressed the frustration of someone who finds himself sailing a ship of state into a hurricane nobody forecast. "Why do we have economists?" he asked, only half joking. Why, indeed. Hundreds of economic forecasts and analyses fill up my e-mail every week. I save them all, and you could fill a book with their wildly off-the-market predictions. Like those of Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, who backtracked recently on optimistic outlooks for 2009 and 2010. The outlooks were only a few months old, but already overtaken by events. It's not as if the Bank is short of economic and forecasting expertise. It has upwards of 300 on staff, the biggest agglomeration of economic talent in Canada. Hundreds more economists churn out numbers at the federal department of finance, at the major banks and securities firms, and at investment houses. Not one produced an accurate prediction of the mess we're in now.
So, what's wrong with economists that makes their work not much more valuable than a daily newspaper? Two things, I think. First, economics is a dog's breakfast of theoretical ideas and alleged causal relationships that are at all times unproven and in dispute. For example, can massive government deficit spending and wheelbarrow-flows of central bank paper money lift an economy into growth and prosperity? Despite all the claims that such government action is absolutely the answer, we still don't have a confident forecast on the recovery. Life, and the global economy, is simply way too complicated to be predictable.
At heart, though, economic forecasting may be the empty mathematical game the great Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises said it was more than 60 years ago. "The mathematical method must be rejected not only on account of its barrenness. It is an entirely vicious method, starting from false assumptions and leading to fallacious inferences. …There is no such thing as quantitative economics." Which doesn't say much about the confidence we should put in the latest forecasts for growth next year — or any year.
Terence Corcoran, Editor
Top 5 USA 
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Citation de la semaine
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"I wouldn’t go anywhere in confined places now"
—Joe Biden on Today Show (talking about the swine flu) |
Poids média de l'actualité américaine (27 avril-3 mai) selon le Pew Research Center:
Flu Fears Dominate a Week of Big Events
Last week, a key Republican senator switched parties, altering the balance of power on Capitol Hill. Barack Obama celebrated his 100th day in office with a prime-time press conference. The chairman of Bank of America was ousted and the Chrysler Corporation declared bankruptcy.
Yet all those stories were overwhelmed by the frantic coverage of a new flu virus that in a matter of days had made its way around the globe and was threatening to become the first influenza pandemic in four decades. From April 27-May 3, the swine flu, or H1N1 as it officially became known, accounted for nearly one-third of the newshole (31%) studied, according to the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism.
This marked only the second time since January 2007 that a health-related subject led PEJ’s weekly News Coverage Index. That other story, now mostly forgotten, was the potential spread of a seemingly dangerous form of tuberculosis by an Atlanta lawyer, and it filled 12% of the newshole from May 27-June 1, 2007.
The dominant story of the year so far, the economic crisis, fell to No. 2 last week, at 10% of the space studied in print and online and time on television and radio. That was followed (at 9%) by the Obama administration with the focus on evaluations of the President’s first 100 days. Moderate Pennsylvania Republican Arlen Specter’s defection to the Democrats came next (9%), followed by more bad news from the auto industry (at 8%).
It’s quite possible that in another week, any or even all of those stories might have received substantially more attention. But the possibility of pandemic flu overwhelmed the media as they scrambled to cover various aspects of the story—from epidemiology to human interest, from the growing number of victims to the political fallout. Press attention was so extensive that some of the coverage began examining whether the threat had been overblown and the media’s role in that.
L’arroseur arrosé 
Probablement inspiré par ce billet, Richard Hétu a décidé d'utiliser son blogue pour essayer de démontrer que le libertarianisme était une mauvaise option politique. Malheureusement pour lui, son exercice ne fait que démontrer son abyssal manque de culture politique.
Premièrement, Richard Hétu a confondu l'option libertarienne avec l'option libertaire. C'est comme si un critique d'art avait confondu le cubisme avec le style baroque. Avant de vouloir débattre du libertarianisme, il serait bon d'avoir un minimum de connaissance, chose que le blogueur de cyberpresse ne semble pas avoir.
Ensuite, Richard Hétu essaye de dire que les libertariens font fausse route en prenant pour exemple la Somalie, un pays sans gouvernement depuis 1991.
Le problème ? Si l'absence de gouvernement fait de la Somalie un territoire anarchique, on ne peut pas qualifier ce pays de libertarien. La Somalie est passée de la tyrannie centralisée d'un gouvernement fort à un pays tribal dans lequel la tyrannie a été fractionnée entre plusieurs chefs de clan. Mais on ne peut pas parler de "paradis libertarien", car dans cette Somalie sans gouvernement, les citoyens restent toujours inféodés au pouvoir en place (leur chef de clan); la seule différence est que ce pouvoir est maintenant décentralisé. Ironiquement, la décentralisation de la tyrannie en Somalie rendue possible par la chute du gouvernement, a amélioré le niveau de vie des Somaliens. Comme quoi l'anarchie reste préférable à la tutelle d'un gouvernement tentaculaire.
De plus, Richard Hétu ne semble pas avoir compris que l'anarchie et le libertarianisme ne sont pas nécessairement équivalents. Plus souvent qu'autrement, le libertarianisme fait référence à un système minarchiste. Ce système a été merveilleusement décrit par Thomas Jefferson (j'espère que ce nom n'est pas inconnu de Richard Hétu) quand il a déclaré lors de son premier discours inaugural: "A wise and frugal Government, which shall restrain men from injuring one another, shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned. This is the sum of good government".
En voulant faire son rigolo, Richard Hétu a simplement montré qu'il était le genre de personne qui préfère dénigrer plutôt que de comprendre. La définition même du dogmatisme.
La vague approche…
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U.S. 30-year bond auction gets dismal reception A U.S. government auction of 30-year bonds met a dismal reception on Thursday, driving down bond and stock prices and raising fears the United States may face difficulty financing spending to stimulate the economy. The $14 billion auction met below-average demand from investors, who forced the government to pay a higher yield. An extended trend of rising yields could force up longer-term interest rates throughout the economy. The higher interest rates also could push up costs for borrowing in areas like mortgages. « It was a horrible auction, » said Mary Ann Hurley, vice president of fixed-income trading at D.A. Davidson & Co in Seattle. « It just does not bode well for interest rates. It’s ugly, it’s very, very ugly, » Hurley added. Worse yet, the high yield at the auction was about 10 basis points above market expectations, meaning the Treasury had to offer a much bigger yield to attract buyers. Such a big differential, is a sign of poor demand. |
Plan B 
Comment Barack Obama va-t-il rembourser la dette et prévenir l’inflation créer par ses plans de relances ?
Treasury Department Issues Emergency Recall Of All US Dollars
Do not, under any circumstances, attempt to burn or shred the money yourself. The Federal government are the only ones who can destroy the money.
Lucidité américaine (IV) 
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Déclaration d’Abraham Lincoln, 16e président des États-Unis, au sujet des droits individuels: « I believe each individual is naturally entitled to do as he pleases with himself and the fruit of his labor, so far as it in no wise interferes with any other man’s rights. » |
La Caisse de dépôt et des amis du pouvoir 
Dans un autre excès de fièvre nationaliste, le Parti Québécois exige que la Caisse de Dépôt intervienne massivement pour empêcher que des intérêts étrangers prennent le contrôle d'entreprises québécoises.
Mais pourquoi les entreprises contrôlées par des étrangers suscitent-elles autant de méfiance ?
Entre 1990 et 2005, l'emploi dans les sièges sociaux localisés au Canada, mais sous contrôle étranger, a crû de 21%. Durant la même période de temps, l'emploi dans les sièges sociaux canadiens a eu une croissance anémique de 6%.
Mais ce n'est pas tout. Il a aussi été démontré que dans le secteur manufacturier, les établissements sous contrôle étranger sont plus productifs, innovent davantage, font un usage plus intensif de la technologie, versent des salaires plus élevés et emploient plus de travailleurs qualifiés que les entreprises se déployant exclusivement au Canada. Encore mieux, la concurrence créée par les multinationales étrangères entraîne une plus grande utilisation de nouvelles technologies dans les établissements canadiens.
En voulant faire de la Caisse de dépôt un instrument politique destiné à investir au Québec, on risque de se retrouver avec les mêmes problèmes que ceux retrouvés dans les Fonds d'Intervention Économique Régionale (FIER) c.-à-d. la Caisse va devenir un immense plat de bonbon dans lequel les amis du pouvoir pourront se servir à volonté aux frais des contribuables.
Dans une société, plus un gouvernement distribue de subventions, plus les gens auront un incitatif à recourir à des jeux de coulisses pour obtenir ces subventions.
Compétition
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Wal-Mart Expands Drug Program Wal-Mart is expanding a pilot prescription-drug program for companies, heating up the race among pharmacy retailers to transform the way drugs are priced and sold. The discount retailer is offering businesses low-priced drugs if they sign up to buy directly from Wal-Mart’s network of in-store pharmacies, rather than contracting to buy drugs through third parties known as pharmacy-benefit managers (PBM). Wal-Mart’s program follows other recent initiatives by big pharmacy retailers to grab market share by offering companies a less-expensive and simpler way to manage their drug plans. The competition to create more-efficient business plans for pricing and selling prescription drugs has the potential to spur change across the pharmacy industry. When Wal-Mart introduced its $4 generic-drug program a few years ago, it shook up the drugstore business and prompted rivals to introduce their own discount plans, broadly lowering costs for consumers. Wal-Mart began a trial of its program with Caterpillar Co., which provides prescription coverage for 70,000 employees and their dependents. Wal-Mart negotiated a fixed markup over its cost for the drugs it sells to Caterpillar’s employees under the heavy-equipment maker’s in-house insurance. The markup guarantees a profit for Wal-Mart, while reducing the cost to Caterpillar. Typically, employers and federal and state governments contract with PBMs to administer their drug coverage, which includes choosing which drugs will be covered and how much they will cost the employers and patients. The new competition from drug retailers aims to provide more certainty — and better prices — to companies. |
Subventionner ou pas ?
Depuis quelques jours, les médias (notamment Radio-Canada), mènent une campagne pour dénoncer le manque de soutien du gouvernement fédéral envers la recherche et le développement. Subventionner la R&D, est-ce un choix rentable pour un gouvernement ? L'économiste Austan Goolsbee a répondu à cette question par la négative:
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« Conventional wisdom holds that the social rate of return to R&D significantly exceeds the private rate of return and, therefore, R&D should be subsidized. In the U.S., the government has directly funded a large fraction of total R&D spending. This paper shows that there is a serious problem with such government efforts to increase inventive activity. The majority of R&D spending is actually just salary payments for R&D workers. Their labor supply, however, is quite inelastic so when the government funds R&D, a significant fraction of the increased spending goes directly into higher wages. Using CPS data on wages of scientific personnel, this paper shows that government R&D spending raises wages significantly, particularly for scientists related to defense such as physicists and aeronautical engineers. Because of the higher wages, conventional estimates of the effectiveness of R&D policy may be 30 to 50% too high. The results also imply that by altering the wages of scientists and engineers even for firms not receiving federal support, government funding directly crowds out private inventive activity. » |
N.B. Austan Goolsbee est un conseiller économique très proche de Barack Obama. Il est aussi le directeur/économiste en chef du "President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board".